If Kenya were a person, I have no doubt it would have heaved a sigh of relief when Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed was inaugurated as the new President of Somalia last February replacing Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. No doubt, this was a major development in the nation which survived years without a proper government in place. It is a feeling quite akin to the sense of gratification a mentor feels when a protégé is mentioned during prime time news as a success story.
Since 1991 when Somalia under President Mohamed Siad Barre fell into ruins, the Horn of Africa nation has only been known for hunger, conflict, terrorism and pestilence. Warlords reigned over the land, splitting the country into sectors purely for profit but without proper organizational structures.
Hundreds of thousands of Somali nationals fled to neighbouring countries at the height of the conflict. The vast majority settled at the Daadab Refugee Camp, which was set up in 1992 and at the latest count had some 256,868 refugees. Many of these were born at the camp and arguably know no other home. Perhaps this explains why news that Kenya planned to close the sprawling camp was received with shock and consternation around the world.
Like a good neighbour, Kenya has stood with Somalia through its struggles and celebrated its small triumphs. Sadly, it has also suffered immensely for being seen as harbouring colonial tendencies when its real intention was to help restore stability in the war-torn nation.
Since 2011 when Kenyan Special Forces marched into Southern Somalia to help flush out Al Shabaab terrorists, East Africa’s biggest economy has suffered multiple devastating terrorist attacks which left hundreds dead, hundreds more wounded and thousands traumatised. At first, the terrorists focused on soft targets such as kidnapping or shooting foreigners mostly on Kenya’s Coast and the North Eastern part of the country closer to the border with Somalia. Later, there were several bus attacks in which the terrorists seemed to target passengers whose identity pointed to the Christian faith. The idea was to cause animosity between Muslim and Christian faithful but their plan fell flat when Kenyans refused to pick the bait. The terrorists also targeted quarries in North Eastern Kenya where workers, most of them originating from outside the region, had landed lucrative opportunities to supply building materials to the rapidly expanding construction industry. It was painful to see bodies arriving in Nyeri and other places in body bags. The anger was palpable.
But everything changed the day the terrorists cowardly walked into the capital city, slipped into a popular mall in Nairobi’s busy Westlands suburb one morning in 2013 and started shooting patrons at random. The attack shook the nation to its core. That hit too close to home. Or too close to the centre of power, if you can call it that. Young lovers on dates at several coffee joints, families on weekend outings, house help doing shopping for their employers, businesspeople sealing business deals and tourists enjoying the warmth and beauty of Nairobi. When it was all over 67 were dead and hundreds injured and traumatised. But if Westgate did anything, it was to renew Kenya’s commitment not to leave Somalia until stability is restored.
Two years later in 2015, even before Kenyans could heal from the trauma of the Westgate attack, the terrorists struck again, this time at Garissa University College, a constituent college of Moi University. The attackers slithered into the compound in the cover of darkness when the sleepy town had retired for the night. When the dust settled, 149 students lay dead. The entire nation was thrown into mourning.
The tragedies, painful as they are, have cemented a permanent relationship between Kenya and Somalia. Somalia needs a strong government which controls every part of the country. It needs functional institutions including a national police force, intelligence services and the military. More importantly, the world needs Somalia where citizens determine their destiny by elected leaders of their choice without being dictated to by a few people. Somalia’s neighbours, especially Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti cannot rest easy when an unstable nation with the longest coastline in the East African Seaboard has terrorists roaming freely both on land and sea.
Considering the foregoing, it would be foolhardy for Kenya to withdraw its forces, now under AMISOM, from Somalia. Like other Kenyans, I feel the pain whenever we lose our soldiers on the battlefront. I know both AMISOM and the Kenyan government can do more to ensure the safety of our soldiers while they perform the all-important role of securing Somalia. However, pulling out can only be discussed once the mission is accomplished and that is when a fully functional government is in place. In any case, the ultimate goal of terrorists is not just to stop Kenya’s alleged interference in Somalia’s affairs. The aim is much more ambitious and includes the carving out of a caliphate in that Horn of Africa strip including parts of northeastern Kenya.
With the recent election of a new President in Somalia, the situation remains precarious but hopeful. The 2017 UN Happiness Report lists Somalia as the fifth happiest in Africa ahead of Kenya which was ranked 13th. The people of Somalia are quite optimistic despite the prevailing instability demonstration not only their resolve but also that the situation is looking up.
What does Kenya stand to gain from a stable, more secure Somalia? The first is that improved security in Somalia improves Kenya’s security. With fewer places to hide, terrorist cells will fizzle out or the terrorists will be forced to look for alternative hideouts.
Secondly, Kenya and Somalia have deep cultural and geographical connections. Compared to all the countries in the region, Kenya is likely to benefit the most from trade ties with a stable Somalia. Somalia is a rich source of raw materials besides being a potentially vibrant market. Related to this is the fact that Somalia is a potential member of the East African Community (EAC) but only once it achieves stability. This could strengthen EAC and give it a stronger voice on the international stage.
Thirdly, this is the 26th year since the first wave of refugees from Somalia crossed over to Kenya and settled at what is the world’s largest refugee camp – Dadaab. Dadaab has had a significant negative impact on Kenya’s environment apart from being suspected to be a hideout for terrorists. Kenya already indicated it wants the camp closed to give refugees a chance to restart their lives in their country of origin or third countries. A stable Somalia could be an incentive for refugees to voluntarily depart thereby easing Kenya’s nearly three-decade burden of hosting refugees.
As the new President warned during his inauguration, it may take another two decades to, in his words “fix” the country. Somalia needs a strong ally that will stand with it through it all. That ally is Kenya.
